Expected Return Formula:
From: | To: |
The expected return on Stock B is the weighted average of all possible returns, with weights being the probabilities of each outcome. It represents the mean value of the probability distribution of possible returns.
The calculator uses the expected return formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula multiplies each possible return by its probability and sums all these products to get the expected return.
Details: Calculating expected return helps investors assess potential investments, compare different stocks, and make informed decisions based on risk-return tradeoffs.
Tips: Enter probabilities (must sum to 1 or less) and corresponding returns for each scenario. At least two scenarios are required.
Q1: What if probabilities don't sum to exactly 1?
A: The calculator allows sums ≤1, treating any remaining probability as a 0% return scenario.
Q2: How many scenarios should I include?
A: Include all significant possible outcomes. Typically 3-5 scenarios capture most realistic situations.
Q3: What's the difference between expected and required return?
A: Expected return is what you anticipate; required return is what you demand based on risk.
Q4: Can I use this for portfolios?
A: This calculates for a single stock. Portfolio expected return would weight individual stock returns.
Q5: How accurate is expected return for prediction?
A: It's a statistical expectation - actual returns will vary around this mean value.